France: towards chaos?

All the polls and commentators had predicted that Marine Le Pen's National Rally would win the European elections in France with more than 31% of the vote, more than twice the score of President Macron's party, which came second with 14%. The third, the Socialist Party, obtained 13%. On the other hand, no one predicted that Emmanuel Macron would dissolve the National Assembly immediately and call for new elections within three weeks. Since last year, in my analyses, I have warned of the fact that France is slowly but surely sliding from a political crisis towards a regime crisis. President Macron's decision is accelerating this process.

Elites ready to commit suicide to save mass immigration

Interestingly, the only commonality between all countries in these European elections, with two or three exceptions, is that no openly pro-immigration party won. The question of immigration has become central in Europe, and particularly in France, where 70% of elites are for mass immigration while 70% of the population is opposed to it. Poll after poll, election after election, the French continue to send messages to their elites so that they finally take at least a break in welcoming migrants, but nothing helps, they remain completely deaf to their distress signals. As a result, France finds itself in an absolute political impasse, because for its elites and the part of the French who identify with them, immigration has become fundamental for sociological, psychological, economic and financial reasons (see my analysis on this subject which predicted what is happening: https://deliberatio.eu/fr/opinions/crepol-un-tournant-presageant-une-grande-instabilite-politique-en-france). For the elites, not only is mass immigration absolutely necessary for the development of the country, but it is also inevitable, it is impossible to stop it, we can only do the maximum to ensure that it takes place as quickly as possible. For them, it is both completely obvious and a humanitarian duty that cannot even be questioned. While for popular France, that of the “working classes”, that of employees, workers, who vote massively for the NR, this immigration has become a danger for their physical and economic security. Because it exerts downward pressure on wages and social benefits, but also and above all because it is perceived as one of the main factors of insecurity.

The most incredible thing is that the elites are ready to commit suicide, to lose the elections, rather than give in on this issue of immigration. For the left, there is no immigration problem, quite the contrary. For the center and the progressive right, we are paying lip service to the fact that there may be a problem of cultural insecurity. It is almost impossible to seriously debate the subject without it quickly turning into fistfights and all those who refuse immigration ending up being called fascists and Nazis. Until now, this strategy of stigmatizing those who questioned immigration allowed the elite bloc and the left bloc to win elections. But the riots of last year and the massacre of Crépol by around ten young people of North African origin armed with knives, on young villagers peacefully partying, and the manipulation of the media and politicians to hide the reality of the facts were the straw that broke the camel's back full of a mind-blowing number of attacks, violence and incivility.

When we study closely the result of the European elections in France, we realize that on the one hand we have the parties representing the inhabitants of five large cities who think that their way of life and their ideas are the best and that they must be imposed on the rest of France, a bit like in the days of the colonies when it was necessary to bring civilization to backward peoples. And on the other, the rest of France. If the NR achieved on average more than 31% throughout France, in Paris, Marine Le Pen's party achieved less than 9% and in the rest of France, excluding the Paris region, it is around 40%. The NR is in the lead in 93% of French municipalities, it’s phenomenal. We are witnessing a paradigm shift. The progressive pro-immigration parties have become, in the eyes of the majority of French people, the representatives of the established order and profit from their situation. In the end, the NR appears to be the only one capable of overturning the table.

Why did Emmanuel Macron decide to dissolve the National Assembly?

Added to this great schism which, election after election, only becomes more and more evident, is the situation in France. During his election in 2017, Emmanuel Macron aroused immense hope among a large majority of French people, but unfortunately, seven years later, the results have not been there. The one the media called the “Mozart of finance”, “Jupiter”, “the leader of Europe”, the “savior of the planet” exploded the French debt and deficits, was unable to prevent the downgrading of France in almost all areas – economy, education, international, etc. Even within the elites, the authority of the President is shrinking, due to the fact that he cannot stand for re-election in the next presidential elections in 2027 (in France, the Constitution does not authorize more than two consecutive mandates, even if a mandate is shortened en route).

In addition, since the last legislative elections in 2022, the presidential party, which is scheduled to disappear in 2027, no longer has a majority in the National Assembly. The latter is paralyzed by the presidential refusal to make a coalition agreement, whether with the left or the right. His defeat in the European elections only confirmed the worsening of the situation. Also, rather than waiting to be made unable to govern by motions of censure, he decided to take his adversaries by surprise and act as quickly as possible.

Added to this is his state of mind: he has always forced the hand of destiny to reach the highest level. He is convinced that luck will be on his side again. Moreover, by doing so, he forces all the media and political elites to fight against his opponent, the NR, for his greatest benefit. Again and again, they reenact the same play, progressivism or fascist dictatorship. If Macron wins, he will once again become the hero of the European elites who will cheer him and surely make him the next president of the Commission. If he loses, he is convinced that the NR will fail given the situation in which France finds itself. For the French President, it is unimaginable that the NR will do better than him, and then in five years he will triumphantly win the European elections and become President of the European Commission.

What scenarios are possible following these legislative elections?

There are three.
1. The presidential party obtains the majority in the National Assembly. For this, Emmanuel Macron would have to be able to once again restore hope to the country and mobilize his entire camp while demobilizing that of the NR. This is surely the most improbable scenario given the latest elections and polls, as the president inspires distrust in the French.

2. The NR, with or without allies, obtains a majority in the National Assembly. According to the latest elections and polls, this is not impossible, but you should know that all the political and media elites have come together and are doing everything to prevent this from happening. And if that happened, an NR government would then have against it the President of the Republic, the Constitutional Council, the unions, the NGOs, the media, the artists, the left in the streets day and night, and civil servants on strike. We could even have major riots and demonstrations in the middle of the Paris Olympics.

3. Return to the status quo ante, with no one having a majority in parliament. This would lead to great political instability. To get out of this, we would need a coalition agreement, which Emmanuel Macron has always refused. France would become ungovernable, its country risk would increase and therefore the interest on its colossal debt too. In this context, it could be tempting for Emmanuel Macron to further accentuate the monarchical side of the French presidential regime. Would the French elites follow Emmanuel Macron in such a toughening or, on the contrary, would they plead for a transition to a parliamentary regime, implying concessions on immigration?

France, towards a technocracy or a parliamentary regime?

We now have, schematically, the elites and a large part of the population who consider that their fundamental interests are in total opposition. Progressive elites have been in such denial of democracy on the subject of immigration for 20 years that we can legitimately wonder if they would be ready to impose a "technocracy" to prevent mass immigration from being stopped. The elite bloc is even ready to commit suicide, therefore to die, so as not to have to give in on this subject. We see it almost everywhere, progressives who are starting to lose their footing are tempted to no longer submit to universal suffrage under the cover of the rule of law and the risk of undermining our fundamental values. It has become increasingly common to hear in progressive media that the people can be wrong, that the elites can be right against them.

In the West, progressives monopolize positions of responsibility in the mainstream media, justice, control bodies, schools, universities, political parties and unions. What will happen if the “non-progressives” gradually start winning every election? What will their reaction be, knowing that progressivism is a utopia of a world without borders? In this world, all societal problems find their source in racism and sexism. This is why all organizations must participate in the indoctrination, social engineering and re-education of individuals by all means, because the establishment of paradise on Earth is at stake. Anyone who finds this project insane is considered an enemy of all humanity and must be treated as such.

For the moment, the progressive elites accept the result of the ballot boxes, but because it is generally favorable to them. As soon as it can be unfavorable to them, they use all means to prevent it, as in the USA to prevent Trump from running, or in France to refuse to take into account the votes of NR voters or to always find millions excuses for not organizing referendums.

If we were still in a peaceful world, we could find a peaceful outcome. But this split between the elites and the rest of the population on this issue is the main weakness of the West, and our enemies know it. There is nothing democratic about the elites refusing to give in to their population and only portends chaos in the current situation where our enemies have a great interest.